Health and Biotech
This section is for developing exhibits on health and biotech topics.
Multiple museums. To have subtopics added please contact us via: http://thetechvirtual.org/help/contact-info
This section will have added details in coming weeks.
Current subtopics include:
Biotech
Health
Health and Biotech
As the human society moves into the 21st century, one of
the concern that needs to be tackled is the well being of the society.
The healthy society is an asset to the country and any investment in
the well being of the individual is an investment in a society which
should not be measured in dollars and cents. The cost of maintaining a
viable health system of sort is by no means trivial and for that
reason its meaningful to provide some sense of dollars involved:
An Issue of Growing Concern
Health care costs have been rising for several years. Expenditures in the United States on health care surpassed $2.2 trillion in 2007, more than three times the $714 billion spent in 1990, and over eight times the $253 billion spent in 1980. Stemming this growth has become a major policy priority, as the government, employers, and consumers increasingly struggle to keep up with health care costs. [1]
In 2007, U.S. health care spending was about $7,421 per resident and accounted for 16.2% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP); this is among the highest of all industrialized countries. Total health care expenditures grew at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in 2007, a slower rate than recent years, yet still outpacing inflation and the growth in national income. Absent reform, there is general agreement that health costs are likely to continue to rise in the foreseeable future. Many analysts have cited controlling health care costs as a key tenet for broader economic stability and growth, and President Obama has made cost control a focus of health reform efforts under way.
Although Americans benefit from many of the investments in health care, the recent rapid cost growth, coupled with an overall economic slowdown and rising federal deficit, is placing great strains on the systems used to finance health care, including private employer-sponsored health insurance coverage and public insurance programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. Since 1999, employer-sponsored health coverage premiums have increased by 119 percent, placing increasing cost burdens on employers and workers. [2] With workers’ wages growing at a much slower pace than health care costs, many face difficulty in affording out-of-pocket spending.
Government programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid, account for a significant share of health care spending. Public health expenditures made up about 46% of the health care dollar in 2007, with the remainder split between private and out-of-pocket spending (42% and 12%, respectively). Medicare spending has grown at a slightly lower rate, on average, than private health insurance spending, at about 9.0 vs. 10.1% annually respectively between 1970 and 2003. [3] Medicaid expenditures, similarly, have grown at slower rate than private spending, though the current economic recession is likely to increase the number of enrollees in Medicaid and therefore increase Medicaid spending. [4]
How is the U.S. health care dollar spent?
As
shown in the figure below, hospital care accounts for the largest share
(31%) of health expenditures. Physician services are the next largest
item, comprising one-fifth of the national health spending.
Prescription drugs, while accounting for only 10% of total
expenditures, have been one of the fastest-growing segments.
National Health Expenditures, 2007
Total = $2.241 Trillion
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group.
What is driving health care costs?
Controlling health care expenditures requires a solid understanding of the factors that are driving the growth in spending. While there is disagreement on exactly what those are, some of the major factors to consider are:
- Prescription
drugs and technology – Spending on prescription drugs and new medical
technologies has been cited as the primary contributor to the increase
in overall health spending. Some analysts state that the availability
of more expensive, state-of-the-art drugs and technological services
fuels health care spending not only because the development costs of
these products must be recouped by industry but also because they
generate consumer demand for more intense, costly services even if they
are not necessarily cost-effective. [5]
- Chronic
disease – The nature of health care in the U.S. has changed
dramatically over the past century with longer life spans and greater
prevalence of chronic illnesses. This has placed tremendous demands on
the health care system, particularly an increased need for treatment of
ongoing illnesses and long-term care services such as nursing homes; it
is estimated that health care costs for chronic disease treatment
account for over 75% of national health expenditures. [6]
- Aging
of the population – Health expenses rise with age and as the baby
boomers are now in their middle years, some say that caring for this
growing population has raised costs. This trend will continue as the
baby boomers will begin qualifying for Medicare in 2011 and many of the
costs are shifted to the public sector. However, experts agree that
aging of the population contributes minimally to the high growth rate
of health care spending. [7]
- Administrative costs – It is estimated that at least 7% of health care expenditures are for administrative costs (e.g. marketing, billing) and this portion is much lower in the Medicare program (<2%), which is operated by the federal government. [3] Some argue that the mixed public-private system creates overhead costs and large profits that are fueling health care spending.
What are the major proposals to contain costs?
The start of a new administration and the economic recession present a new window of opportunity for health care reform and for controlling health costs. However, since the 1960s, the nation’s efforts to control health care costs have not had much long-term effect, prompting a debate over what proposals are actually able to sustainably reduce costs. [8] One effort, the advent of “managed care,” which represented a shift towards greater control over utilization of services, did initially seem to generate savings as managed care practices became widespread throughout the late 1980s and 1990s. However, spending has since rebounded sharply as the health sector seems to have exhausted one-time savings and a backlash loosened many managed care policies, particularly restrictions on consumer choice. The different proposals currently in the policy arena are divided broadly by debate over a stronger role for government negotiation or market-based models relying on competitive forces.
- Investment
in information technology (IT) – Greater use of technology, such as
electronic medical records (EMR), has been promoted and researched for
its potential to more efficiently share information and reduce overhead
costs. $19 billion in federal funding has already been allocated to
uniformly upgrade health IT, a major component of the Obama
administration’s health reform plan, indicating that the movement to
invest in IT has gained significant traction.
- Improving
quality and efficiency – There are a number of initiatives in play that
aim to help make the health care system more efficient and higher
quality, and consequently more cost-effective. Overall, decreasing
unwarranted variation in medical practice and unnecessary care is seen
as a priority, particularly geographic variation, since higher spending
on health care in certain geographical areas does not correspond to
better health outcomes. Some experts estimate that up to 30% of health
care is unnecessary, emphasizing the need to streamline the health
system and eliminate this needless spending.
- Adjusting
provider compensation – The current system of provider compensation
pays physicians a given fee per procedure or test, for example as
dictated by the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule guidelines for the
value of over 10,000 physician services. Currently, there are
proposals to revamp some provider payments to ensure that fees paid to
physicians reward value and health outcomes, rather than volume of
care. This is meant to eliminate unnecessary care and thereby decrease
costs. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is being increasingly
emphasized as a means to determine which treatments are most effective
for given conditions, in order to provide doctors with the necessary
information to make the best choices for patients’ care.
- Government
regulation – Citing the success of the Medicare program in controlling
per capita spending over its history and warning that market-based
approaches combined with greater individual financial responsibility
can disadvantage those with limited financial resources and create
barriers to needed care, some policymakers favor more government
involvement in the health care sector. Critics argue that such
regulation stifles innovation and that market-based approaches are more
cost-effective and will provide consumers with a wider range of choices.
- Prevention
- The burden of chronic diseases, such as diabetes and cardiovascular
disease, has risen dramatically; both of these chronic conditions are
known to be correlated with obesity, smoking, and diet, and are very
expensive to treat over long periods of time. Proposals have been put
forward to emphasize prevention by providing financial incentives to
workers to engage in wellness and prevention, in order to decrease the
prevalence of these conditions and avoid incurring the long-term costs
of treatment. However, it is unclear how much prevention programs will
decrease costs, since paradoxically healthier people will likely
live—and use the health system—longer. For those already suffering
from chronic diseases, disease management strives to improve and
streamline the treatment regimen for common, chronic health conditions.
-
Increasing consumer involvement in purchasing – Supporters of “consumer-driven” health care believe that greater price transparency would make consumers more price sensitive and more prudent purchasers and thus save consumers and employers money. One of the major forms currently is tax-favored “health reimbursement accounts (HRA),” to which employers contribute funds that are managed by the employee to spend on primary health care as she directs. Critics of the consumer-directed approach raise concerns about the potential impacts that the higher cost-sharing would have on lower income people and about the potential for these new arrangements to be disproportionately used by healthy people, shifting sicker groups to more expensive forms of insurance.
-
Altering the tax preference for employer-sponsored insurance – Currently, employees do not pay income or payroll tax on money employers spend on their health insurance, regardless of the cost of those benefits. Some current health reform proposals suggest eliminating or changing the tax exclusion for employer-sponsored health care to help finance the costs of expanding coverage as well as reducing incentives for the most generous and therefore expensive health plans. One possibility is that the tax exclusion would be capped at the value of benefits received by members of Congress, and employees opting for more expensive health plans would be taxed on the difference. Those against eliminating the tax exclusion worry doing so could drive up the cost of health insurance to workers and disproportionately affect smaller companies and those with an older workforce, who tend to pay higher premiums.
Costs have emerged as a central element of any national health reform effort. As policymakers move forward with plans to enact comprehensive health reform, costs will surely continue to be at the forefront of the surrounding policy debates.
Current and immediate Concern - On our doorstep
Come flu season the media is quick to bombard us with statistics of outbreak and the associated cost etc but this year the arrival of the swine flu is an added concern.
What is Novel H1N1 (swine flu)?
It is an influenza virus that has never been seen in humans before and is spreading around the world. On June 11, the World Health Organization issued its highest form of global public health alert when it labeled the disease a pandemic.
Tip of the Iceberg
Flu as a health and financial nuisance is just a tip of the Iceberg. CDC or center for disease control lists 32 common types of disease and condition as of today 9/21/2009 and an extensive alphabetical listing of all disease and conditions. Just the listing for the cancer itself lists 8 main different types of cancers. www.cdc.gov/DiseasesConditions/
Please also see this link: www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/treatment/types-of-treatment
Types of Cancer
- Breast cancer
- Colorectal (colon) cancer
- Gynecologic cancers Cervical, ovarian, uterine, vaginal, vulvar
- Hematologic (blood) cancers Leukemia, lymphoma, myeloma
- HPV-associated cancers
- Lung cancer
- Prostate cancer
- Skin cancer
Cancer Cure
Currently only a few cancers are curable, and that is often dependent on early detection. (CNN, 03/09) New research and enhanced treatments continue progress toward changing cancer from a life threat to a chronic illness that is managable. For instance, 81% of women diagnosed with breast cancer are alive 10 years later. Nanotechnology, better drugs, and molecular biology are producing hundreds of far more sophisticated treatments that are selective, non-invasive, and safe. Nanotech agents are especially promising because they are intelligent enough to seek out cancer cells, they are small enough to enter cells and destroy them, and they are safely removed later by the kidneys. (Washington Post, 1/31/05) TechCast estimates cancer patients will approach normal life spans by 2020-2030, although our experts' confidence in this forecast is a relatively low 60%.
| • Roughly 50% of cancer patients die of the disease. The mortality rate was unchanged until 2006 when it fell for the first time in 70 years. (BusinessWeek, 6/9/03; CNN.com, 2/9/06) |
| • There were only 10 cancer drugs in ‘95, but there were 400 drugs in testing as of ‘05. (BusinessWeek, 6/2/05) |
| • The head of the U.S. National Cancer Institute thinks cancer could be elminated as a cause of death by 2015. (Discovery, 10/06) |
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Trends driving this event
IMPROVED TREATMENTS The most promising treatments include 60 or so forms of nanotechnology and molecular biology, which are especially useful because tiny intelligent devices and molecules can kill cancer cells precisely with no side effects. (Washington Post 1/31/05) Piotr Grodinski, Director of the US National Cancer Institute, summed up the state-of-the-art in 2008: "Five years ago there was nothing the FDA would consider. Today there are 30 small companies working in the field, a handful are in clinical trials, and we expect 3-4 more this year."
(Forbes.com 2/22/08) Some examples of work underway:
• Scientists at the University of California are using nanotechnology and microbiology to build "cargo ships" 50 nanometers wide that flow through the bloodstream. The hull of the ships is made of lipids designed to evade the body's immune system, and the surface is covered with molecules that attach to cells and penetrate them. The cargo consists of a nanoparticle and a quantum dot that track movement on MRI scanners and the anti-cancer drug doxorubicin targeted to destroy tumours. Plans are underway to "zip-code" the ships so they will seek out specific types of cancer. (PhyOrg9/15/08)
• CytImmune Sciences has developed a solid gold agent coated with a drug that is in its second round of clinical trials; John Hopkins U. has made iron nanoagents that attack prostrate cancer; Rice U. has created gold nanoagents that cook the tumor to death. A leading scientist said: "It's inescapable that we're going to see very real progress."(Washington Post 1/27/09)
• Two cancer treatments using nanoparticleswere in use as of 2009, one for ovarian cancer and the other for breast cancer (Future Edition 8/30/09).
•The U.S. is planning a Human Cancer Project bigger than the Human Genome Project. The NIH will spend $1.35 B over 9 years to identify mutations that cause cancer, which will form a "Cancer Genome Atlas." A researcher said “Knowing defects points to the Achilles heel of cancer.” (Boston Globe, 3/18/05)
• RNA molecules 25-40 nanometers wide are small enough to enter cancer cells and carry drugs to destroy them. A researcher said “We have not had an efficient system to delivery drugs. This is an incredible accomplishment.” (Purdue. edu, 9/14/05)
• Bacteria are being designed to seek out cancer, enter the cells, and produce a toxin that destroys them. "Bacteria are the ultimate in smart drugs," said a genecist. (TechnologyReview, 6/2/06)
• Metal-filled or coated nanotubes improve the ability to detect and destroy cancer.(VCU, 10/18/05) For instance, gold-plated nanoparticles have been found to destroy tumors completely. (TechnologyReview1/2/07)
• Molecules called “dendrimers” are used to deliver drugs precisely to cancer cells. (TechnologyReview, 10/24/05)
• Researchers have found mice that are totally resistant to cancer. Injecting their white blood cells into other mice with cancer completely killed the cancer cells. (Smart Economy, 5/15/06)
• "Cancer stem cells” have been discovered that resist standard chemotherapy and go on to trigger regrowth of tumors. “We hope to destroy the engine responsible for treatment failure and recurrence,” said a researcher. (newscientist, 1/20/05; NY Times, 2/28/06)
• A vaccine can cause the immune system to seek out and destroy cancer cells. It is thought to prevent recurring tumors in the colon (TechnologyReview7/27/09).
• Bundles of nanotubes are being used to create microscopic explosions that destroy cancer cells. (UDel, 10/13/05)
• DNA placed in polymer nanocapsules provides "antisense therapy" and "interfering RNA therapy" to cure the basic cause of cancer. (nano.cancer.gov, 9/12/05)
• Carbon nanotubescan act as tiny lasers when exposed to infrared energy and release heat to destroy cancer cells. (Scientific American, com, 8/02/05)
• Better drugs are appearing: Tarceva, Olaparib, and Avastin are being used to shrink tumors 90% (TechnologyReviewStatin drugs used to treat cholesterol and heart disease are also effective in preventing cancer. (BusinessWeek, 6/9/03) The drug DCA has been shown to kill all forms of cancer cells while not harming healthy cells. (NewScientist 1/20/07) BETTER PREVENTION & DETECTION 6/25/09). A vaccine for pancreatic cancer raised 2-year survival rates from 15% to 76%.• It is now known that at least
one-third of all cancer cases are preventable. For instance, tobacco causes 80-90% of all lung cancer deaths. There is also a link between obesity and many types of cancer. Diets high in fruits and vegetables may have a protective effect, and, conversely, excess consumption of meat may be associated with increased risk. Asbestos can cause lung cancer; aniline dyes have been linked to bladder cancer; and benzene can lead to leukaemia. (World Health Organization, 2009)
• Ninety tests are available to detect cancer earlier and more accurately (Washington Post, 1/31/05) For instance, biomarkers, such as DNA methylation, can detect early signs of cancer (TechnologyReview, 10/05). Researchers at U. of Texas developed a microfluids device that detects cancer in 10 minutes (TechnologyReview 8/21/07). Antibody-labeled magnetic nanocrystals make cancer cells visible on MRI scans (nano.cancer.gov, 8/19/05). Silicon nanowires detect subtle signs of cancer and indicate the type. “These devices target molecules with near perfect selectivity,” said a researcher. (Eurekalert, 9/23/05)
Obstacles Opposing this Event
COSTLY Treatments for cancer can cost as much as $250,000, and the average cost increased from $37,504 in 2003 to $57,657 in 2006. One in four cancer patients said they used up all or most of their savings to pay for treatment, according to a 2006 survey of nearly 1,000 survivors. “There’s not enough money to treat everyone,” said a clinician (BusinessWeek, 6/21/04; USA Today 10/12/08).CANCER IS COMPLEX
Some scientists think the US Cancer Genome project is doomed to fail because cancer encompasses more than 200 diseases requiring different approaches. Further, cancer spreads because of rare cells that cause metastasis, and the composition of cancer cells differs widely in the body. (Newsweek 3/26/07).
Handle on the situation
So how do we get a handle on the situation that seems to be spiraling out of control? If we treat health care as any other industry with controls in place to limit spending that may be part of the solution, under that heading things like preventive maintenance and monitoring should be included (Is it not cheaper to do periodic health checks on an individual for early detection of what often ends up being a emergency situation if left to take its natural course). The following may shed some light:
Body Monitoring
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| GROWING NEED Changing lifestyles require more aggressive monitoring of body functions. For example, the sedentary lives of most workers today often do not provide enough exercise, even while the body is hard-wired to eat and store food. Increased stress due to a more difficult world can also be harmful. And many people suffer from chronic illnesses that require careful monitoring and control. Body monitoring can give feedback to these people on how best to support their health. |
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RESEARCH IMPROVING
• If body sensors became the norm, in the aggregate these real-time data streams could aid medical researchers by providing more complete treatment and patient outcome information. "We want to gather information in near real time and, more importantly, act on the results of that information in a more continuous fashion," says Martin Harris, CIO at Cleveland Clinic. (NY Times 4/13/09; Technology Review 2009) • A 5-mm implant improves the monitoring of tumors. Instead of biopsies which give a snapshot of a tumor at a particular moment in time, a cylindrical five-millimeter implant contains magnetic nanoparticles coated with antibodies can give continuous monitoring. Target molecules enter the implant through a semi permeable membrane, bind to the particles and cause them to clump together so they can be detected by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). (http://www.gizmag.com/) • Thin and durable implantable sensors are in clinical trial to help address the disintegration of electronic devices exposed to body fluids. These technologies stimulate, pace or help regulate body functions. (Singularity Hub 3/20/09) • Tiny, digestible sensors are in clinical trials. These ingestible event markers (IEMS) serve as a platform to monitor if a patient takes medication, they measure vital signs such as heart rate, and record the response to medications. (Singularity Hub 3/20/09) |
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APPLICATIONS GROWING
The
confluence of more effective sensors and wireless communications
increasingly allow body monitoring with good data to assure optimal
health. Some examples: • The Cleveland Clinic is using monitoring devices to deal with chronic conditions of diabetes, heart failure, asthma and hypertension. (Technology Review, 2009) • The Mayo Clinic has a software program that integrates health history and data from medical monitors. It provides reminders about vaccinations and various preventive measures. (Technology Review, 2009) • Non-intrusive, lightweight external sensors worn around the neck, on a belt clip or an arm band can monitor vital data in real time. Feedback can be sent to health professionals via PCs, PDAs and cell phones. (Singularity Hub 3/20/09) • A headband can monitor sleeping patterns to assess healthy or distrubing symptoms (TechnologyReview 7/28/09). |
| DISINTEGRATION OF SENSORS Many monitoring devices require direct access to bodily fluids that can harm delicate instruments. Sensors implanted into the blood stream, for instance, have difficulty staying functional due to moisture, enzymes, and the immune system. (Singularity Hub, 3/20/09) |
| INFECTION Sensors implanted in the body can provoke life threatening infections. (Singularity Hub, 3/20/09) |
| DATA OVERLOAD Huge amounts of data from continuously monitored people would demand nothing short of a revolution for medical research and analysis. (Singularity Hub, 3/20/09) |
| PATIENT USE To be effective, monitoring systems must be used properly and carefully. Many home medical monitoring systems demand patients step on a scale or put on a blood-pressure cuff. (Technology Review 2009) |
An emerging technology that will become a great asset is the use of Biotechnology to serve humanity.
BioTechnology
The field of synthetic biology is energized by the vision of being able to design and build biological systems to order. The goal is to create organisms that serve specialized purposes, such as simulating the photosynthesis of plants that convert sunlight into energy at 100 % efficiency, converting waste biomass into fuels, treating infections with customized antibodies, and countless yet unknown purposes. The DNA of cells can now be extracted and transferred into other cells, but that constitutes merely the transfer of life rather than its creation anew. Scientists think the dividing line between managing inert matter and creating life will be crossed in a decade or less, with profound philosophical consequences. One said, “It’s going to be a big deal,” and another claimed “For the first time, God will have competition.” (Nature 6/28/07)
· Biologists think synthetic life will likely be created sometime within the next 3-10 years, or about 2010 to 2017. (Yahoo News 8/20/07)
· Dr. Craig Venter, who pioneered the mapping of DNA, thinks his team will create life in 2008: “I will be surprised and disappointed if we can’t do it in 2008.” (NY Times 1/25/08) However, Venter’s plans do not meet the criteria noted below.
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Trends driving this event
RESEARCH UNDERWAY The J. Craig Venter Institute has created a synthetic string of DNA 580,000 units long from simple chemicals to produce an exact copy of a small bacterium’s DNA. Plans are also underway to insert it into a bacterial cell, which Dr. Venter
hopes will function properly and thereby signify the creation of artificial life when it is “booted up.” Critics point out, however, that this would constitute merely copying the genetic code rather than creating an original code, and it relies on the use of an existing cell. (NY Times 7/8/07)
• Various research efforts are underway to create organisms that generate natural gas, H2, ethanol, and other biofuels. For example, the U.S. Department of Energy is spending $ 125 million for work at 3 national labs and 3 universities to create new forms of life that convert plant material into fuel. (Wired 7/2/07)• The Scripps Research Institute has created RNA molecules (the close cousin of DNA) that replicate with no assistance, mutate randomly, and the most fit survive through competition for resouces. This sounds a lot like life, the researchers agree, but it is only a close approximation yet. (livescience.com
1/22/09)
Obstacles opposing this event
| CRITERIA FOR SYNTHETIC LIFE Scientists define three major components that must be created to constitute synthetic life: 1) The membrane of the cell, which serves as a container protecting the cell’s components from dangers in the environment, 2) A genetic system (DNA) that controls the cell's functions, guides it to reproduce, and adapts to environmental changes, 3) A metabolism that extracts raw materials from the environment and converts this raw food into useful energy and structures. (Yahoo News 8/20/07) |
| SCIENTIFIC DOUBTS One researcher in the field thinks, "These things are going to be so weak, it would be a huge achievement to keep them alive for an hour in the lab."(Yahoo News 8/20/07) Others wonder if cells can tolerate differences in their DNA and other structures without failing. (Nature 7/5/07) |
| BIOHACKING Concern is mounting over the rise of biohackers who work on synthetic life forms in their homes. They could unintentionally create dangerous life forms or intentional threaten others. |
If everything was to work as planned than what is the end result and what if any problems will that generate
| CRITERIA FOR SYNTHETIC LIFE Scientists define three major components that must be created to constitute synthetic life: 1) The membrane of the cell, which serves as a container protecting the cell’s components from dangers in the environment, 2) A genetic system (DNA) that controls the cell's functions, guides it to reproduce, and adapts to environmental changes, 3) A metabolism that extracts raw materials from the environment and converts this raw food into useful energy and structures. (Yahoo News 8/20/07) |
| SCIENTIFIC DOUBTS One researcher in the field thinks, "These things are going to be so weak, it would be a huge achievement to keep them alive for an hour in the lab."(Yahoo News 8/20/07) Others wonder if cells can tolerate differences in their DNA and other structures without failing. (Nature 7/5/07) |
| BIOHACKING Concern is mounting over the rise of biohackers who work on synthetic life forms in their homes. They could unintentionally create dangerous life forms or intentional threaten others. |
| CRITERIA FOR SYNTHETIC LIFE Scientists define three major components that must be created to constitute synthetic life: 1) The membrane of the cell, which serves as a container protecting the cell’s components from dangers in the environment, 2) A genetic system (DNA) that controls the cell's functions, guides it to reproduce, and adapts to environmental changes, 3) A metabolism that extracts raw materials from the environment and converts this raw food into useful energy and structures. (Yahoo News 8/20/07) |
| SCIENTIFIC DOUBTS One researcher in the field thinks, "These things are going to be so weak, it would be a huge achievement to keep them alive for an hour in the lab."(Yahoo News 8/20/07) Others wonder if cells can tolerate differences in their DNA and other structures without failing. (Nature 7/5/07) |
| BIOHACKING Concern is mounting over the rise of biohackers who work on synthetic life forms in their homes. They could unintentionally create dangerous life forms or intentional threaten others. |
If all the research and preventive maintenance was effective than what would be the end result - Life extension
Life Extension
Opinions on aging are highly controversial, but the evidence seems to be accumulating that life extension is possible. Discoveries are being made in extending the life of cells, repairing damage to the body, replacing organs, curing major illnesses, and improving lifestyles. As a result, trends suggest that human life spans could approach 120 years about the middle of this century. The challenges and social consequences are enormous, but many authorities are confident the problem can be solved. TechCast's
data suggest life spans could average 100 years by about 2030.
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PROS: Trends Driving this Event
RESEARCH UNDERWAY• The first drug has been shown to extend life in mammals. Rapamycin has been tested in mice and shown to increase average life spans by 9% in males and 13% in females, even when used later in life. A Harvard researcher said "we may look back at this as a landmark that pointed the way to medicines of the future." (TechnologyReview
7/8/09)
• A substance in red wine - resveratrol - has been found to protect animals from illness and aging. "It's the first example of a drug that controls the aging process. Before, this would be considered snake oil," said a scientist at NIH." (Washington Post 11/17/06) One study foudnd that resvertrolworks by reducing inflammation, one of the most common causes of illness (Biology News 7/31/09).
• Harvard scientists have found that enzymes called “sirtuins” are “universal regulators of aging in virtually all living organisms.” This set of genes allows calorie restriction diets to avoid age related diseases and prolong life, and scientists now hope to control sirtuin genes directly to gain these benefits without calorie restriction. (Nature, 8/25/03; TechnologyReview, 3-4/06) Sirtris Pharmaceutials is testing a drug using sirtuins that is a thousand times more potent than resveratrol, and results for extending life spans to 100 years or so look promising. David Sinclair, the lead scientist, says "This will impact humans within a decade." (TechnologyReviewSept/Oct 07)
• Southwestern Medical Center identified the gene in mice that increases age. The sponsors said, "It may be a way to promote healthy aging and longevity in people." (Washington Post, 8/26/05)
• Researchers have developed an enzyme “telomerase” that causes human cells to replicate hundreds of times beyond what was thought to be the limit of cell reproduction, the “Hayflick Limit.” (Merchants of Immortality, Houghton-Mifflin)
• Lipoic acid has been shown to increase life spans in animals. (biosingularity5/31/07)
• Genes like CEPTare being identified that seem to prolong life. (Scientific American 1/12/07)
• Scientists at University of Southern California have extended the life of yeast cells 10-fold by disabling genes that are believed to limit life spans and through calorie restriction. "We expected a boost," said the lead researcher, "but not a 10-fold increase.It's remarkable." (LiveScience1/25/08)
• John Sperling, the billionaire who founded the University of Phoenix, has started an endowed research project to "solve the problem of aging.” (Wired 2/04)
• Research on nanotechnology may permit “fleets of computer controlled molecular tools smaller than a cell to remove obstructions in arteries, kill cancer cells, and otherwise repair the human body.” (Reason, 8/02)
• The Russian Institute for Life Extension is conducting a major program to solve the problem of aging. AGE CREATES WEALTH
Studies at the International Longevity Center and at universities suggest that the extension of healthy lives create wealth for individuals and nations. (Science, "The Health and Wealth of Nations," 287:1207-9, 2000)
CONS: Obstacles Opposing this Event
| SOCIAL IMPACTS Accidents, illnesses, etc. will always shorten lives, and many do not wish to live longer. The social consequences of an aging population would be huge. |
| LIFE SPAN MAY BE FIXED Prof. S. Jay Olshansky at the University of Chicago expects mean life spans to top out at 85 years for genetic reasons. Prof. Leomard Hayflick at the University of California agrees. “Superlongevity is simply not possible.” (New Scientists, 3/5/01) But a study noted that such claims have consistently been proven wrong. (Science, 4/29/02) |
| SCIENTIFIC DOUBTS In a scathing article, a respected Yale researcher questions the assumptions of life extension. He doubts, for instance, that the seven solutions proposed by Aubrey De Grey are feasible. "Science has not come close to solving a single one," he said. (Technology Review, 2/05) |
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Resources you'll need:
Itemized "fill in the blank" and checklist for exhibit design:
http://thetechvirtual.org/projects/resources/list-of-exhibit-components
Get assistance with your project or apply your expertise to an existing project:
http://thetechvirtual.org/helpwanted
Software and other resources for realizing your vision:
http://thetechvirtual.org/projects/resources
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SL - Expolab/Citylab
